Monty Hall Paradoax

Monty Hall Paradoax

 The Monty Hall Problem is how is it statisically possible that after having the ability to choose three doors, a door is eliminated with no prize, but switching from your originial choice gives you a better chance at winning the prize than staying with your originial choice. Many people believe that after one door is eliminiated that the chance of choosing the correct door is 50%. However, this is a paradoax because switching from your originial choice increases your chances by 1/3 for a total of 2/3 or 66%. Therefore, switching from your original choice gives you a better chance of winning.

 

When I played 10 times and I changed the door, I had 9 wins and 1 lose. When I played 10 times and I stayed with the door, I had 2 wins and 8 losses. This data fits with the Mythbusters data because the more you switch from your originial choice, the higher chance you have to win the game. The same goes for the more you decide to stay with your originial choice, the smaller chance you have to win the game.

When I played 1000 times and I changed the door, I had 668 wins and 332 losses. When I played 1000 times and kept the door, I had 324 wins and 676 losses. This data fits with the Mythbusters data because the more I stayed with my originial choice the less I won. I loss 676 times compared to a 324 wins. When I changed my door, I had 668 wins and 332 losses showing that I had a better chance at winning when I switched my door.

 

 Final Thoughts:

I thought the Monty Hall Problem was really interesting because when I was first watching Mythbusters I believed the same like many other people that after the first door is eliminated, your chances of winning are 50%. However, I am surprised that many people who went on Monty Hall's game show didn't do previous research to understand that switching doors gives you a 66% chance of winning. I believe that people keep their first choice because its their gut instinct and people tend not to distrust their instinct. Other game shows that would be interesting to analzye is Deal or No Deal and the chance of winning a briefcase of a $1,000,000.

 

Monty Hall-Let's Make A Deal Game Show Host